NFL Draft Analysis Round One – Part One…

28 04 2011

Ok, watching the draft is both fun and exciting. And I love having it spread out over three days now. But honestly 4 QB’s off the board in within the first 14 picks? Seriously? Whatever. The only one coming out of that with a win, is the Titans. I think Locker will do well in a system featuring Chris Johnson.

I’m going to attempt a pick by pick analysis focusing on the fantasy not the reality. Lets face it, it’s fun to analyze and predict, but most of these will not pan out. If some do, you better bet your ass I’m bringing them back up in future posts!

PART ONE: Picks 1-16

1. Cam Newton, QB – Carolina Panthers

Umm… what can I say? He has a tremendous amount of talent and could be awesome for the Panthers for years. I just don’t see it. But, he could immediately become the most productive fantasy player for the Panthers. With questions on whether Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams will be around a lot of the work falls on him. I still love Stewart as the every-down back, but defenses will key on him even more than last year. And we all know how the running backs fared in Carolina in 2010. I’m looking at you DeAngelo and Jonathan!

2. Von Miller, LB – Denver Broncos

This immediately helps the Broncos. He will start day one on a defense that was putrid in 2010. Apart from that, this is still a D to stay away from.

3. Marcell Dareus, DT – Buffalo Bills

The Bills had the worst run defense in the NFL last year. THE WORST! Remember back, a year ago (I know it’s tough), when you would literally plug-in any RB going up against the Bills? Yeah, they just got better. He will also start day one and make them better. We’ll see how much better, but we know the kind of difference one great DT can make, don’t we Lions fans.

4. A.J. Green, WR – Cincinnati Bengals

Now here we go. Some offense to talk about. Who doesn’t this guy help? He automatically gives Carson an upgrade at WR. I know WR’s don’t usually give big production on year one but I believe this guy is the exception. With TO gone and Chad on the rocks, Green will be moving up on draft boards. Could go early in dynasty leagues, but stay away in standards till at least the 4th round.

5. Patrick Peterson, DB – Arizona Cardinals

Do you think the Cards miss Rolle? I think so. And Peterson should be even better. The Cards have a lot of talent on the Defensive side, it just didn’t show well in 2010. If the offense can stay on the field for just a tab bit longer, this defense could surprise a lot of drafters. The Cardinals D is an early sleeper candidate.

6. Julio Jones, WR – Atlanta Falcons

I was shocked to see this pick happen. Trading down 20 spots is a big move and the Falcons must really, REALLY love Jones. I gotta say, this should take away some production from White. His numbers the past two years have been sick! Now with Jones, Matt Ryan’s numbers are going to be sick. I still think the Falcons will be a run-first oriented team, so don’t expect Jones’ numbers to jump off in his first year.

7. Aldon Smith, DE – San Francisco 49ers

I really don’t know much about him. Oh, just read some analysis! Now I’m up to speed. Sounds like a versatile, above average defensive lineman who can also drop back into the linebacker. Moving on…

8. Jake Locker, QB – Tennessee Titans

Jake, Jake, Jake. Wish you would have come out a year sooner? Come out one year earlier, and you would have gone in the top 3. Another year of college ball to round out the skills, sounded good in theory. But for some reason, it just wasn’t there. I believe you will end up being the best QB out of the 2011 draft. And the Titans are a good team to start for. You get a phenomenal coach in Fisher and a stud RB to help alleviate the pain. An up and coming Britt, healthy and ready to show he’s no fluke. An ideal situation, congrats Jake.

UPDATE: Ummm… I’m not sure how I forgot but thanks to Jon for pointing out that the Titans and Fisher parted ways… Suffice it to say, I’m less excited about Jake. But I still like him dumping quick screens to CJ!

9. Tyron Smith, OT – Dallas Cowboys

Immediate line help for the boys. Tony Romo coming back from injury, clearly he will benefit the most. Romo is going to be very high on my board and just may have moved up a notch. This is all of course based on the Cowboys signing Doug Free for 2011.

10. Blaine Gabbert, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars

What? Another shocker. Gabbert was highly thought of, so him sliding to 10 was a little shock but the Jags moving down to snatch him up was a big shock. I would say, this affects David Garrard the most. It could go either way. I like Garrard, but he hasn’t been the consistent threat we all thought he was going to be when Leftwich went away. Gabbert could step in and take over quick. I wouldn’t touch either guy in a standard draft.

11. J.J. Watt, DE – Houston Texans

I feel like the Texans have been searching for the book-end DE for Super Mario since they… drafted Super Mario. Maybe this is the guy? Maybe… time will tell, but I thought they could have done better.

12. Christian Ponder, QB – Minnesota Vikings

If you play in a two QB league and want to take a chance, he may be your man. The new system in Minnesota will emphasize running and dumping short passes. I’m sure Ponder can do that! And with weapons like Peterson, Harvin and Rice, there is a lot to like on offense.

13. Nick Fairley, DT – Detroit Lions

Suh and Fairley with KVB and Avril on the ends? Wow. I really wanted Prince at this spot because our DB’s get beat every game and it’s extremely frustrating but this move could really benefit the Lions offense. If Fairley can match Suh’s intensity this defense is going to create many opportunities for Stafford and Co. I predict the Lions win the Super Bowl!

14. Robert Quinn, DE – St. Louis Rams

Not a pressing need for the Rams, who already had a very good defensive line but Quinn is an excellent prospect and will give them immediate depth on the line.

15. Mike Pouncey, C – Miami Dolphins

He should start right away and give immediate help to whoever is running. Be it, Williams or Brown or someone new. Look for the Dolphins to run even more this year than last.

16. Ryan Kerrigan, DE/LB – Washington Redskins

A motor guy, who will help improve the second level of the Redskins right away. I expect much better play out of the Redskins in year two under Shanahanigans.

Part Two coming…

-FFJ


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8 responses

29 04 2011
Chris Ross

Nice post overall and I was also just shocked that the Falcons wanted Jones so badly. I understand that Atlanta really needs a playmaker to compliment Roddy White and that they are in win now mode. However, I’m still not sure that those reasons can justify giving up what they traded for a guy who isn’t even the #1 rated Wide Receiver in the draft. Julio Jones has a lot of issues with drops and his apparently doesn’t play to his speed. I just think they’re really stretching and giving up 4 additional draft picks is wasteful. They’re most likely going to regret this one. On the other hand, the Browns did pretty good for themselves. Also, you think you could take a glance at my blog cuz I really wanna hear what you think http://chrisross91.wordpress.com/2011/04/28/wide-receiver-folly/

29 04 2011
fantasyfootballjunkie

Welcome to the site Chris and thanks for posting! I will definitely check out the site.

Time will tell for the Falcons. For a team wanting to win it this year, I don’t think it’s a bad move but they better get to at least the NFC championship game to justify it.

29 04 2011
Frog

Woo Hoo he’s back! Excellent analysis so far T. The Panthers are idiots BTW. I cannot believe the CB from LSU didn’t go earlier and the Panthers should have taken him, drafted a QB in the 2nd round and if thy still stunk next year they could go for Luck.

29 04 2011
fantasyfootballjunkie

Good to be back Frog. I wouldn’t say the Panthers are idiots… but it should help the owner fill some seats. If anything, Cam might be fun to watch on the field! But if I was truly rebuilding, I mean truly, I would be taking an OL or DL to start it off. Problem is, there wasn’t that one guy to justify taking him 1st. And nobody wanted that first pick! Panthers were in a tough spot to begin with.

29 04 2011
mmablaster

Hilarious that the Vikings drafted Ponder with the 12th pick. He is going to get crushed in the NFC North. Rice is coming off the hip injury, Harvin is always dealing with ankle/migraine/mental issues. I have a feeling that the Vikings will be bottom dwellers in the division for some time.

29 04 2011
fantasyfootballjunkie

I hope you are right Blaster! The Lions have occupied that spot for more than their fair share. And it’s going to be hilarious to watch Ponder go up against Suh and Fairley! It’s safe to say, I can’t wait for this year to get started.

7 05 2011
Rob

Hey Junkie,
This is the guy who back in the middle of the college football season said Cam Newton would be a top three draft pick, while everyone I know was saying mid first round at best….documented! That being said, I think the draft of Cam is a huge risk to take. One thing for sure, it will be interesting to see if he becomes a Jamarcus Russell or a young Donovan McNabb. Hopefully, we’ll be back to visit next year (come on players and owners!).

9 05 2011
fantasyfootballjunkie

Hey Rob, you are the man. At first I thought you were talking about me, lol. But then I woke up and said, what? I didn’t think Cam would go this quick…

So I went searching for the original comment, dated December sometime…

“Speaking of Cam Newton. Two points. One: With the story about Cam’s dad and now allegations surrounding several Oregon players and cars, cash, etc., this is going to be one heck of a illegitimate championship game. But who are we kidding? Yeah, if you believe the folks at BSPN, you’re likely to think AU is a rogue program, but we’ve seen all this before, from Alabama and Albert Means, to Reggie Bush at USC, to Auburn and Oregon. It’s the lure of money, pure and simple, and just about every college program is into it on some level. That’s my non-fantasy related sports take.
Take 2: I predict Cam Newton will be a top 3 draft pick, next year,,,#1 if the right team has that pick.”

Nice work! I still don’t like the risk, but if they start him, he’s sure to sell a ton of jerseys and seats to help the owner out that way.

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